A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
